Iran And The Jaws Of A Trap
Thursday, February 2nd, 2006 by RLRFrom The Asia Times
By Paul Levian
Judging from the rather frantic behind-the-scenes efforts of Russia and China in Iran, they seem to appreciate that the Iranian leadership is in for a big and probably deadly surprise. The Bush administration has not only handled its Iran dossier much more skillfully than Iraq, but also managed to set up Iran for a war it can neither win nor fight to a draw.
If the Iranian leaders think they can deter an attack because the US is bogged down in Iraq they are already between the jaws of a well-set trap. Though a Western war against Iran will be a big geopolitical defeat for Russia and China, they cannot but resign themselves to this outcome if they are unable to convince the Iranians to accept the Russian proposal – ie uranium enrichment in Russia.
The Russians saw the writing on the wall when France, Germany and Britain began to march in lockstep with the United States. In particular, the widely but wrongly discounted nuclear belligerence of President Jacques Chirac last month implied that France was ready to accept the US use of nuclear weapons in a war against Iran if they saw fit to do so.
The Iranian leadership’s obvious confidence in its ability to deter the US, Britain and Israel seems to rest on mainly four assumptions. Iran is militarily much stronger than Iraq, much larger, its terrain more difficult, its society more cohesive – thus more difficult to defeat, to occupy and to pacify. In addition, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad seems to take particular comfort from the widely anticipated wave of popular outrage and anti-Western attacks in the wider Middle East if Iran should be attacked.
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What Ahmadi-nejad says dismays most Iranians. In September of 1941 allied forces occupied Iran and Iranians showed no reaction. I believe, in contrast to 1941, all Iranians, the supporters of the president and those who despise him, will confront the occupiers.
Hardline islamists seek a historical and global victory over Christianity, Judaism and Bhuddism(Remember destruction of Bhudda statutes in Bamian by the islamists of Afghanistan).
Ahmadinejad explicitly said in UN that he believes in the victorious Shiite Leader(Imam Zaman)who will come and eliminate all forms of injustice [in all countries including Russia and China]. But for the time being, he tries to bribe out China and Russia in the coming showdown.
Western powers need not occupy Iran. Forbidding foreign ships to enter, or any ships to leave Iran’s ports may suffice for crumbling the regime.
Mr. Raji’s comments are so very simplistic.
The problem, in a nutshell, is a deep cultural and historical wound that is not being healed even today. It has grave consequences both for the east and the west unless more wisdom prevails.
Understanding of Iran is poor in the West and certainly Western media have badly twisted what the President of Iran has said.
The West is looking for an excuse to attack Iran for reasons or its own. Iran is growing in its economic and industrial power and will be competing with the West in the region on an economic and political grounds, which are fair grounds, which the West does not believe it can preserve except through unjustifable military action. This is a dangerous thought, i.e. the thought that the West can preserve its hegemony through military action. The time for gun-boat diplomacy passed in the 20th century. Any military pressure on Iran will have far reaching consequences which will not all be pleasant for the West.
In contrast, a policy based on openness, exchange and commerce will improve understanding and mutual dialogue.
However, I’m pessimistic because I do not believe the West has the confidence to engage in such constructive discussion. Its lack of confidence in such measure shows its lack of power and a growing worry regarding its own demise.