Not So Smart
Wednesday, July 19th, 2006 by RLRFrom The NY Times
By Thomas L. Friedman
Profiles of the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah always describe him as the most brilliant or strategic Arab player. I beg to differ. When the smoke clears, Nasrallah will be remembered as the most foolhardy Arab leader since Egypt’s Gamal Abdel Nasser miscalculated his way into the Six-Day War.
Yes, yes, I know. I am a too-rational Westerner. I don’t understand the Eastern mind and the emotional victory that Nasrallah will reap from all this pain. It isn’t whether you win or lose; it’s whether you kill Jews. Well, maybe — but, ultimately, wars are fought for political ends. An accounting will be rendered, so let’s do some math.
First, Nasrallah has set back the whole fledgling Arab democracy movement. That movement, by the way, was being used by Islamist parties — like Hezbollah and Hamas — to peacefully ascend to power. Hezbollah, for the first time, had two ministers in the Lebanese cabinet. Hamas, through a U.S.-sponsored election, took over the Palestinian Authority. And in both cases, as well as in Iraq, these Islamist parties were allowed to sit in government and maintain their own militias outside.
What both Hamas and Nasrallah have done — by dragging their nations into unnecessary wars with Israel — is to prove that Islamists will not be made more accountable by political power. Just the opposite; not only will they not fix the potholes, they will start wars, whenever they choose, that will lead to even bigger potholes.
Does this mean Hamas and Hezbollah will never get another vote? Of course not. Their followers will always follow. What it does mean is that if the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, or Islamists in Jordan or the Gulf, had any hopes of taking power through electoral means, they can forget about it. I don’t see their governments ever allowing elections that might bring Islamist parties to power, and I don’t see the U.S. promoting any more elections in the region, for now. The Arab democracy experiment is on hold — because if Islamist parties can’t be trusted to rule, elections can’t be trusted to be held.
All Arab dictators say, thank you, Nasrallah.
On the peace front, let’s see, Israel gets out of Lebanon and Gaza, and what is the response of Hamas and Hezbollah? Build schools, roads and jobs in their recovered territories? Nope. Respect the border with Israel, but demand that Israel continue to withdraw from the West Bank? Nope. The response is to shell Israel from Gaza and abduct Israeli soldiers from Lebanon. Hamas and Nasrallah replaced the formula land for peace with land for war, said the former Mideast envoy Dennis Ross.
In doing so, they have ensured that no Israeli government is going to unilaterally withdraw from the West Bank and risk rockets on Tel Aviv. Nasrallah and Hamas have brought strategic territorial depth back to Israeli thinking. All West Bank Jewish settlers say, thank you, Nasrallah.
But let’s assume Nasrallah doesn’t care about democracy or a Palestinian state. He has to care about his own standing. His adventures have led to the devastation of his people — what is happening to Lebanon is a terrible tragedy — with relatively little damage to Israel. He launched a war on behalf of Iran that ruined his people, and the best outcome he can expect is a cease-fire that requires Hezbollah to move away from the Israeli border.
Moreover, Iran gave Nasrallah missiles to deter any Western or Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program. By frivolously playing their missile card now, Hezbollah and Iran have exposed and weakened Iran’s deterrent. Really dumb.
Can America capitalize on Nasrallah’s foolishness? To me, the big strategic chess move is to try to split Syria off from Iran, and bring Damascus back into the Sunni Arab fold. That is the game-changer. What would be the Syrian price? I don’t know, but I sure think it would be worth finding out. After all, Syria hosts Hamas’s leadership in Damascus. It is the land bridge between Hezbollah and Iran, without which Hezbollah can’t survive. And it is the safe haven for the Baathist insurgents in Iraq.
Yes, we have a lot to discuss with Syria. And so do the Saudis, the Egyptians and the Jordanians, who are worried that Syria is paving the way for an Iranian-Shiite takeover of Arab politics.
I’d sure be interested to know if Damascus would respond to a U.S.-Saudi overture — like the one that got Libya to give up its nukes — and come over from the dark side. Unlikely, to be sure, but if the Bush team had the smarts to pull it off — also unlikely — it would be the mother of all defeats for Iran and Nasrallah.
Rights are not given they are gained. People in that region can not wait for Isreal to see if Isreal give them a little of this and a little of that.
If you look at the big picture, although sunni governments are not backing hezbolah and hamas, their people admire them. A lot of people in that region regardless of their religious affiliation support any movement against Israel.
Inclusion of Syria in the current sunni governments stance is only a temporary fix and will not last long for the reasons I just mentioned.
The only true fix for mideast problem is a just and sustainable peace deal brockered not by united states but by international community.
You are too ignorant mate! Assad is from a Shiite family. likwsie you are jewish and feel close to Israel. Isn’t it mate?
The sole purpose of Hezbollah’s hostage taking was to engage in negotiations with Israel to free hundreds of Lebonese prisoners who have been in Israili prisons for years. Hezbollah has tried this before and has succeeded in hostage-prisoner exchange.
I believe Mr. Friedman, ‘terminology’ is on your side and those people who agree with you.
Israel is a state, hence Lebonese people snatched out of their homes are alleged/convicted prisoners. Full-scale bombing of the cities of Lebonan is Israel’s right to defend herself.
Hezbollah is a terrorist organization and the captured Israili soldiers are hostages. Katusha attacks on Israili soil are acts of terrorism.
“Yes, we have a lot to discuss with Syria. And so do the Saudis, the Egyptians and the Jordanians, who are worried that Syria is paving the way for an Iranian-Shiite takeover of Arab politics.”
How interesting you should make that comment, and President Bush will be meeting with Saudi representatives today, along with Sec.of State Rice.
As for baby Assad being Shiia, don’t know and don’t care, as it is well known he is a Baathist.
Also, I don’t see how the international community can resolve this issue. There was already a UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon, and it did nothing to prevent the current situation, and I don’t see many lining up to go, as a UN observer was shot in the back twice by a hezzie, less than 12 hours ago.
The only sure way this can be resolved, is for hezbollah to be reduced from an armed terrorist organization, and for the Lebanese people to take charge of the hezzie disease in their country. For those of you predisposed to hate all Jews, that is your burden from years of indoctrination. When it gets right down to what is important, all anyone wants is to lead a good life, raise their families, be happy, and live in peace. Israel responded to an act of war, they didn’t start it.
Oh..I’m not Jewish, I’m an American citizen that has seen war up close, and I know more than I ever wanted, about human misery and suffering, and I hate seeing what is happening right now. That said, I also recognize living with daily rocket attacks from hamas and hezzie, is not an acceptable way of life, for any soveriegn nation. War is war, and hezbollah firing rockets into Israel at their civilian population, gives them no moral advantage in criticizing Israel’s response. Trying to delegitimize Israel’s suffering, because they have a stronger state, and more powerful military, is more an admission of the weakness of the Lebanese government, and the strength of the terrorist state within the Lebanese state.
Americans deep down prefer an Israeli dominated middle east than a Arab and muslim dominated one despite the fact that Muslims and Arabs are majority in that region. Here are the reasons:
- Strong presence of US through Israel in that region for its huge energy resources: US imports about 11 million barrels of oil each day while the 9 million that it produces, is deteriorating and will come to an end within 12 years.
- All over Jewish run media(not all media but let’s say 60 percent of media) Islamic faith is promoted as one that supports violence and is against Jews and Christians and add to it the training of religious fundamental groups that see Islam as a fake copy of its predecessors.
No Muslim country as well as Israel (with lower extend for Israel though) will not experience peace and prosperity as long as people in US and other oil thirsty countries need to fill up their tanks with cheap fuel.
Observer,
What does oil have to do with the Bali bombings, the train bombing in India, the train bombing in Spain, the bus bombing in England, the destruction of Buddhist monuments by the Taliban. The common link there is terrorist promoting terrorist states, and those of the Islamic faith that promote the global hirabah. Incidentally, there is no nation on earth that doesn’t use petroleum products. The larger question is what are those countries that are selling those 74USDollar barrels of oil doing with the money. Why are there no master craft builders in that region of the world? America and other western countries are not, nor is Israel, responsible for all the problems in the ME. It’s the lack of freedom and liberty, of education, jobs, and capital investment. When jet airliners and ocean liners are manufactured in the ME, then we will know they have ascended beyond the 8th century thinking too many in Islam prove daily, that they adhere too.
There is not much a difference between the people that crashed planes to twin towers and those that assassinated Robin and those who support wars and provide logistics and physical means for it. They just accuse each other of being terrorist, infidels or whatever name you might imagine.
During their glorious days when Muslims ruled from Asia to Europe, they were very proud of their scientific achievement like you are today of the advances in technology in western countries.
I suggest you to study the history of ME especially the period after WW I to better understand the root causes of violence in that region.
Observer,
I have studied the history of the ME…extensively. Are there any particular scientific achievements from the Arab/Islamic invasion of all those countries, you would like to mention?
Remember, the ones they took from the Persian empire don’t count, as they were achieved through conquest of a non-muslim nation, before most of the great libraries and art were destroyed.
What of the Treaty of Serves, after the conclusion of WWI. Where is the outrage for the nations that ignored that document, and denied the nation of Kurdistan it’s borders?
We can talk about history, or we can learn from it. Currently, it seems we aren’t applying what we have learned from it, and keep repeating the same mistakes. The one constant I see in this closed loop, is the inability of the ME mindset to move beyond it’s ancient history, and methodology.
The queston remains, why haven’t the cultures in the ME advanced with the times?
It really isn’t that difficult a question, especially considering the wealth generated by the OPEC nations.
I know people from practically every country in the ME region you can name. We have no difficulty in discussing serious issues, and remaining friends. Many of them suffered greatly from the IRI, after it came to power in 1979. Since that year, the world was introduced to modern terrorism, and those who support the global hirabah, are it’s pawns.
Agree with the issues but,
1.confrotation with Iran, at tis fragile oil proces is too risky
2. PLEASE USE PERSIAN GULF insead of GULF,
What shed blooder you are Mr. Free-Jew-dman?
Mr. Friedman,
If you think Israel was justified in wrecking Lebanon in response to the killing of eight soldiers and the kidnapping of two, what should Palestine have done to Israel for the killing of Huda Ghalia’s family, while they were relaxing on a beach, had they the wherewithal?
Face it, Israel is the agressor most of the time, brave because it has US backing and US ordanance to drop on civilans. Most of the dead Israelis were soldiers, an occupational risk of joining the army. Most of the dead Lebanese were civilians.
Now Hezbollah is right there building up what Israel knocked down. So part of what you say at the begining is not quite right.
Mr friedman
Hizbullah is not a terrorist organization like you think.
hizbullah born from the heart of lebanon not from the heart of syria or Iran ,we understand that he get the support from Iran but is normal like the american give support to how they want
I understand that you are Zionism but be fair when you writing concerning lebanon and he`s legal resistance .
every body know that hizbullah not involve in the lebanese civilian war and every body know that during the civilian war the aerican support the christian against the muslim that mean the hans of hizbullah clear from blood and he had the right to resist the israel occupation of the lebanese land
please don`t give black image to your readers send the true image
regards