From The Khaleej Times
By Dr. Kristian Koch

Given the horrific events in Iraq, the continued threat from terrorism, the violence in both Palestine and Lebanon, and the stalemate in the peace process, one would think that the Middle East and the Gulf region have witnessed enough conflict. Certainly, the people of the region are tired of what appears to be a never-ending cycle of violence and instability that could at any time spread regionally. But just as one thought it could not get more complicated, a potentially even more destructive confrontation between the United States and Iran looms around the corner. Current developments are not encouraging, and time short to prevent what is bound to be a catastrophe.

Recent developments, coupled with those over the past year, portend an increased period of tension. Immediately after President George W Bush’s Iraq policy speech, a flurry of statements by US administration officials point toward a more confrontationist attitude vis-a-vis Iran. In addition to sending a second aircraft carrier group to the Gulf, Patriot missiles and military supplies are being positioned in the region. Further, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is stating the need to confront Iran’s destabilising behaviour and Vice-President Cheney is referring to the growing threat that Iran represents. Not to be outdone, Iran continues to heighten the rhetoric, vowing that nothing would stop its nuclear programme and warning that any future action would be seen as hostile.

Given current strategic alignments, the actions of the US and Iran are key to determining the future environment in the Gulf. But what either side apparently fails to understand is that with this position comes a clear and definite responsibility to keep the region stable and ensure that their antagonistic bilateral relationship does not have detrimental consequences for the other states in the region. This responsibility is not taken seriously. Instead, both the US and Iran appear so consumed and focused on each other that they completely disregard the concerns of the states and people in the rest of the Gulf, ignore what would happen to global oil supplies in the event of a conflict, push aside the impact of such a conflict on the further spread of terrorism, not to speak of the grim possibility of a war that could engulf the entire Middle East. Current attempts at trying to woo the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states to support either of the causes are nothing more than self-serving mechanisms.

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