From Market Watch
Will U.S. finish preparing for flu pandemic before clock runs out?

By Ruth Mantell

U.S. medical, scientific and pharmaceutical personnel are racing against nature to protect Americans from what some say is the
imminent threat of a worldwide outbreak of deadly influenza, specifically the danger posed by an avian-flu virus that could mutate to a more-lethal form.
Although preparations have been underway for some time, the nation’s capacity to produce vaccines and antiviral drugs is strained and a federal goal of creating a stockpile of avian-flu vaccine for 20 million critical workers such as police officers and firefighters has yet to be met.

“The problem is that this virus already has the ability to infect humans, so it’s one step closer than anything we’ve seen before,” said Robin Robinson, acting associate director for pandemic influenza medical countermeasures with the Department of Health and Human Services. “The viruses are one to two mutations away from sustained human-to-human transmission.”
A world outbreak, or pandemic, could occur when a new flu virus emerges for which people have little or no immunity, and spreads easily from person to person, according to PandemicFlu.gov, a Web site managed by the U.S. government. In that event, it would take months to produce an effective vaccine and for manufacturers to gear up.

The first doses of a well-matched flu vaccine could be available in the United States 20 weeks after the onset of a pandemic, according to Robinson. Stockpiles of antiviral drugs could treat about 34 million people; by 2008 that figure could reach 81 million.
Health professionals are concerned about the H5N1 avian-flu virus because it is especially virulent and may be transmitted directly from infected birds to humans. A vaccine created from the current strain of H5N1 probably would not be potent enough to fully protect consumers from a stronger pandemic strain, but scientists say it could do some good. (See Avian flu FAQ.)
“As the virus continues to evolve genetically and acquires by mutation the ability for sustained human-to-human transmission, then an H5N1 pandemic may emerge,” Robinson said. “When will this event occur is not known, but the virus does continue to evolve and does represent a significant pandemic threat.”

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